On July 18th, the first think tank salon of Chint was held in the "Chint World" exhibition hall. Dr. Ha Jiming, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs Investment Management China and Investment Strategist, was invited to give a keynote speech and discussed the current domestic and international economic situation and future investment development opportunities with members of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, Chairman of Zhejiang Federation of Industry and Commerce, Chairman of Chint Group, Nan Cunhui, Dean of Zhejiang Industrial and Information Technology Research Institute, Lan Jianping, Director of Zhejiang Federation of Industry and Commerce Research Office, Liu Zhiyi, and representative of the new generation of entrepreneurs, Dr. Huang Wenli.
In his speech, Nan Cunhui stated that the theme of this think tank salon is "China's Economy and Market Outlook", and many people are confused and confused about the current complex economic situation. Brexit has further exacerbated the uncertainty of the global economy. From a domestic perspective, China's economy is currently in a critical stage of structural adjustment, transformation, and upgrading, and the "pains" of adjustment are still ongoing. However, despite the significant economic pressure both domestically and internationally, there is still great potential and hope for China's economic development. The huge consumer market with a population of over one billion, urban infrastructure investment, and rural development all contain enormous development potential. Nan Cunhui believes that Dr. Ha Jiming's wonderful speech and the collision of guests' viewpoints will definitely bring a feast of ideas to Chint employees.
Subsequently, Dr. Ha Jiming gave a speech from five dimensions: global economic and investment outlook, China's economic growth rate and its impact on other economies, China's rebalancing, reform plans, structural faults, China's recent economic situation, China's outlook, and investment impact. Dr. Ha Jiming believes that the current Chinese economy is facing enormous challenges, on the one hand to achieve economic rebalancing, and on the other hand to avoid disorderly and destructive adjustments. But he still has confidence in the future development trend of the Chinese economy. At the same time, Dr. Ha Jiming believes that the transformation from "Made in China" to "Made for China" will provide huge development potential for health and education, elderly health care, financial management, tourism, Internet, entertainment, sports and other industries.
Under the wave of the new economy, Chint must strive to be a pioneer in exploring and forming its own ideological concepts and action paths
——Nan Cunhui, member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, Chairman of the Zhejiang Federation of Industry and Commerce, and Chairman of Chint Group
Nan Cunhui believes that we should have full confidence in the Chinese economy. There are indeed many crises and challenges in certain areas of the country, but there are opportunities for investment, support, restructuring, innovation, and development during each crisis. Especially, it will bring about the driving development of new technologies and industries, thereby promoting the social economy.
Now that the Internet era has arrived, the first thing for enterprises to do is to innovate and not to stick to the beaten track. For Chint, continuous innovation and development in the field of electric power and new energy has been something they have been striving to do over the years. If Chint keeps focusing on old products, old technologies, old methods, and old markets, does not keep up with the pace of the country, does not keep up with the world's development trends, and does not constantly explore and innovate in new industries related to its main business, we cannot develop our assets to over 40 billion yuan. Nan Cunhui further mentioned the residential rental rooftop distributed photovoltaic power station that Chint is currently building. This investment model with stable returns has become increasingly popular among ordinary residents. The second is to make sufficient efforts in energy efficiency management, adhere to green development of enterprises, and extend to smart cities, intelligent transportation, and smart finance when enterprises need to cross boundaries in the future. New industries need to be cultivated, and the pace should be steady without panic. There is no need to panic.
In the new economic wave, for private enterprises in Zhejiang, Nan Cunhui believes that Chint should strive to be a "pioneer in exploration" and form its own ideas and action path through exploration.
Goldman Sachs has always had confidence in the Chinese economy
——Dr. Ha Jiming, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs Investment Management China and * Investment Strategist
Today's input, tomorrow's output, and today's investment structure are tomorrow's industrial structures. Ha Jiming stated that Goldman Sachs has always had confidence in the Chinese economy. A long time ago, when the Chinese economy had very high bad debts, they still chose to invest heavily, which later proved to be a very correct decision. In the financial field, Goldman Sachs was the first foreign-funded enterprise to obtain a financial services license in China, setting up service points in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen, and fully connecting its headquarters in Hong Kong and New York, achieving global integration of business operations. Ha Jiming believes that compared to the 1990s, the current Chinese economy is no longer on the same order of magnitude. Nowadays, whether it is the financial industry, manufacturing industry, or other industries, there have been greater upgrades. Therefore, Goldman Sachs' cooperative development model in China should be said to be innovative and keep pace with the times.
In the future, the nine major industrial sectors of the Chinese economy will show a vigorous development trend
——Liu Zhiyi, Director of the Research Office of Zhejiang Federation of Industry and Commerce
Liu Zhiyi stated that there are nine major industrial sectors worth paying attention to in the future of the Chinese economy* It is an emerging economy, and the reason why Hangzhou has successfully transformed is due to the fact that emerging economies have accounted for more than 50% of its GDP. Therefore, although there has been a temporary decline in private investment, the profits from its industrial output are increasing. The second is the new energy sector. Currently, photovoltaics have become the leader in this industry, and there is great potential for development in the future. The third is the health sector, where the government's expenditure currently accounts for about 5% of GDP, which is far from the 13% to 15% in developed countries. Therefore, it means that there is a huge space of nearly 5 trillion to 6 trillion yuan in this sector. The fourth is the elderly care sector, which currently has a volume of about 4 trillion yuan, and according to national requirements, it will reach 13 trillion yuan by 2020, of which there is nearly 9 trillion yuan of space. The fifth is the telecommunications mobile phone sector, with a current domestic smartphone volume of approximately 2.1 trillion yuan and expected to reach nearly 6.4 trillion yuan by 2020. Therefore, there is enormous potential for the development of intelligent mobile phones. The sixth sector is the financial services sector, with a development potential of approximately 10 trillion to 15 trillion yuan by 2020. The seventh is the tourism and leisure sector. According to the national plan, the tourism industry will account for 5% of GDP in 2020, which means there will be about 5.5 trillion yuan of development space in the future. The eighth is the film and entertainment sector, and currently there is enormous potential for the development of Zhejiang's film and television cultural industry. The ninth is the manufacturing sector, where high-end manufacturing industries like Chint will be the driving force for the future development of the real economy.
Put more funds into the cutting edge and into the real economy
——Dr. Huang Wenli, Ph.D. in Mathematics from Zhejiang University and representative of the new generation of entrepreneurs
We have observed that China's overall debt ratio is quite high at present. Strategically, everyone is also talking about deleveraging and debt reduction, but if we ignore structural issues and simply talk about the need for deleveraging, we believe it may not be appropriate. The main issue of China's debt problem may still be a structural problem, with the key being that the majority of debt comes from non-financial corporate sectors, which have a structural differentiation, including state-owned enterprises and private enterprises, with state-owned enterprises accounting for a larger proportion.
Therefore, from this perspective, Dr. Huang Wenli believes that the key to reducing leverage is to lower the leverage of state-owned enterprises. At the same time, he suggests that funds should be appropriately allocated to private enterprises that urgently need money and are more market-oriented and mature. Put every newly added fund into the right direction and truly invest it into the real economy.
Transformation and upgrading are not something you want or don't want, but something you have to do
——Lan Jianping, President of Zhejiang Institute of Industry and Information Technology
Lan Jianping elaborated his views from three aspects: yesterday, today, and tomorrow in Zhejiang. He believes that Zhejiang's yesterday was a pilot development in planned economy and market economy, closed economy and open economy, rapid economy and industrial cluster transformation and upgrading. These three economic reforms are very clear. In the early stages of reform and opening up, Zhejiang ranked around 18th to 20th in the economic rankings of various provinces in China. However, by the 11th Five Year Plan period, Zhejiang had entered the forefront of the Chinese economy, advancing alongside Guangdong, Shandong, and Jiangsu. The reason for such achievements cannot be separated from the government's repeated emphasis on marketization issues, and from Zhejiang scholars and entrepreneurs adhering to marketization to achieve the leap from a resource small province to an economically large province today.
